In accordance with the figures, the prediction market recorded its second highest notional buying and selling quantity in two years. In accordance with information compiled by Dune Analytics, roughly seven platforms had $25.7 billion in notional buying and selling quantity in March, with many of the exercise focused on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Essential factors:
- Dune Analytics had buying and selling quantity of $25.7 billion in March. As exercise turns into extra concentrated, polymarket and kalshi develop into dominant.
- Polymarket recorded 115 million transactions in March, whereas Karshi had 88 million. This dimension signifies additional market adoption.
- CFTC oversight and US lawmakers are focusing on Polymarket, a market with open curiosity approaching $940 million.
Polymarket and Kalshi drive billions in buying and selling quantity
Dune.com information compiled by @datadashboards reveals prediction market quantity continues to hit new highs. Statistics for January 2026 present that the month marks the best level in notional quantity, reaching a document $26.75 billion, adopted by February’s whole of $23.24 billion. The statistics for March have been finalized, and the month recorded $25.7 billion, making it the second-highest month on document.
For the reason that month is incomplete, when mixed with April’s $3.9 billion, the cumulative whole from January 1, 2024 reaches $162.64 billion. March’s numbers spanned seven completely different markets, whereas Karshi and Polimarket led the sector with $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Polymarket buying and selling quantity is primarily pushed by politics, adopted by cryptocurrencies, sports activities, and world occasions.
The Dune dashboard reveals Kalsi seeing elevated exercise throughout the financial system, finance, and politics, whereas additionally increasing into area of interest areas corresponding to local weather, climate, and transportation. Following the headline numbers introduced by Polymarket and Kalshi, Crypto.com, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.enjoyable, and Additional time.io make up the remainder of the cohort.
March noticed a pointy enhance in exercise, reaching roughly 207 million transactions throughout all tracked prediction markets. This represents a big month-on-month enhance in comparison with February’s 155 million. As soon as once more, Polymarket and Kalshi took the highest spot, with Polymarket accounting for 115 million transfers and Kalshi recording 88 million.
As of this writing, the prediction markets have a mixed open curiosity of roughly $939.86 million, with exercise largely focused on two platforms. Kalshi tops the listing with $487.21 million, adopted by Polimarket with $422.09 million. Which means this pair accounts for almost all of at this time’s whole positions. Smaller platforms have been far behind, with Predict.enjoyable at $19.51 million and Opinion at $10.38 million.
The remaining venues’ contributions have been small, with Limitless contributing roughly $666,520 and different venues totaling simply $3,760, indicating a pronounced top-heavy market construction. Polymarket and Karshi are attracting this demand regardless of some ongoing headwinds, together with sure market-related disputes associated to the US-Iranian battle. Democratic lawmakers are primarily against prediction markets and are pushing laws geared toward rising oversight.
The 2 main platforms additionally deal with state-level laws that battle with federal steerage, significantly from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC). Nonetheless, regardless of criticism and the prospect of regulatory motion, open curiosity and notional worth proceed to develop in Polymarket and Calci. Whereas it stays unclear how lengthy this momentum will proceed, it’s clear that prediction markets are right here to remain.
