Cryptocurrency exchanges are scheduled to report knowledge on July 30, and merchants on prediction market platforms are predicting that Coinbase’s second-quarter buying and selling quantity could have been considerably decrease than anticipated.
One of many causes this betting is gaining traction is that the platforms that deal with betting have expanded considerably over the previous 12 months.
In April 2026, Karshi and Polymarket’s whole buying and selling quantity reached $24 billion, nearly 5 instances as a lot as in lower than a yr.
Karshi merchants imagine that the roughly 12% drop in Bitcoin costs within the second quarter affected Coinbase’s buying and selling exercise.
The change is predicted to announce its third consecutive quarter of declining volumes.
The entire quantity is prone to be lower than $200 billion, which might be the bottom quantity for the reason that firm reported within the third quarter of 2024.
Kalsi’s contract value exhibits how cautious sentiment has turn out to be. Merchants imagine there’s a 41% probability that Coinbase’s quarterly buying and selling quantity will exceed $160 billion.
In response to FactSet, there may be solely a 25% probability of it exceeding $170 billion, which is already under Wall Road’s consensus estimate of $168.5 billion.
Nonetheless, bettors should not pricing in a whole collapse, as 99% of the time quantity will stay above $150 billion. Calsi makes use of data from funding analysis website Fiscal.ai to find out how these contracts are settled.
Coinbase’s inventory value could not be any higher. Since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, the inventory value has fallen greater than 55%.
This decline is in step with the overall strain that has constructed up throughout crypto markets throughout that interval.
New customers surge resulting from World Cup
The speedy progress of each industry-leading platforms is paralleled by the elevated use of prediction markets to cost monetary outcomes.
In response to CBS Sports activities, the prediction market’s greatest picks for 2026 embody Kalshi at No. 1 and Polymarket at No. 2, adopted by DraftKings and FanDuel Predicts.
Each have added massive numbers of customers in latest months, thanks partly to high-profile occasions that introduced them in entrance of audiences that had by no means used prediction markets earlier than.
In the course of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, 3 million new customers joined Karsi.
The quantity traded in a single contract concerning which nation would win the title exceeded $1.2 billion, setting a document for a single market on the platform.
The entire quantity spent on Carsi throughout the World Cup was $12 billion. Along with selling Luka Modric, Jose Mourinho, Lionel Messi, Timothée Chalamet and J. Balvin, the platform has partnered with OpenAI to show present contract odds inside ChatGPT.
The technique is “the main target of the information,” in accordance with Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder of Karshi.
Now that the World Cup is over, the query for the platform is learn how to retain new customers when there aren’t any occasions of comparable magnitude scheduled.
Political quantity and regulatory hole
On the planet of political playing, polymarkets nonetheless paved the way.
The location generates roughly $507 million in political bets every week and accounts for an estimated 93% of all trades in political prediction markets.
In distinction, Kalsi data about $16.8 million in weekly political transactions. Politics accounts for 32% of Polymarket’s whole exercise, however solely 4% of Kalsi’s exercise.
Inside Polymarket, the enterprise is split into two very totally different operations.
The corporate’s offshore platform generated $9 billion in income in April 2026. The US-regulated model of the platform introduced in $1.3 billion in the identical interval.
That separation has important implications for merchants who wish to use prediction markets to hedge their positions round outcomes from established corporations like Coinbase.
The CFTC is at the moment investigating Polymarket for potential insider buying and selling in contracts associated to geopolitical occasions.
Institutional merchants now have a legally legitimate option to take positions primarily based on firm earnings and quantity forecasts in actual time, due to Kalsi, a regionally licensed enterprise.
The outcomes may be one other check of whether or not prediction markets are dependable barometers for predicting company earnings.
