Whereas bitcoin (BTC) has been buying and selling between 60,000 and 70,000 {dollars} (USD) for 3 weeks, as of February 27, 2026, institutional buyers within the derivatives market are positioning themselves for doable value declines under this sturdy psychological threshold.
As Jean-David Péquignot, director of the Deribit derivatives platform, defined to the press, “ETF (traded fund) holders and company treasuries are shopping for 6-month and 1-year put choices with an train value of $60,000 or much less as insurance coverage for his or her portfolios.”
The assertion comes in opposition to a backdrop of the $60,000 put possibility accruing round $1.5 billion in open curiosity. It’s concerning the highest quantity recorded amongst all strike costs and maturities on the platform, as proven within the following graph.
Put choices can help you promote bitcoin at a preset value even whether it is buying and selling under it. On this sense, they perform as draw back safety for buyers who purchase them. The Deribit change concentrates about 80% of cryptocurrency choices buying and selling, so its exercise displays market methods.
The institutional weight in bitcoin explains a part of the expansion of this protection. US spot ETFs maintain round 1.26 million BTC, about 6% of the availability. Publicly traded firms, in the meantime, maintain about 1.14 million BTC, equal to five.7% of the entire.
Though the value of bitcoin rebounded to $70,000 this week, Péquignot famous that demand for protection continued. 30-day places nonetheless commerce at a roughly 7% volatility premium over calls. That “signifies that good cash is continuous to pay for draw back safety fairly than chasing the rally,” he stated.
Due to this fact, the chief added that an method to the extent of $60,000 may result in choices promoting, which might put downward stress on the value of BTC. That course of would enable buyers to rebalance publicity towards impartial positions.
Bearish expectations abound for BTC
This positioning happens whereas bitcoin is buying and selling virtually 50% under its all-time excessive of $126,000, reached on October 6, 2025. That peak was recorded within the 12 months after the newest halving. Traditionally, this era has marked the top of bullish cycles and the start of deep corrections near 80%.
Resulting from this sample, as reported by CriptoNoticias, it’s estimated that the bear market may proceed, additionally motivated by the macroeconomic state of affairs. The unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s tariff coverage and the uncertainty over whether or not rates of interest will fall is producing danger aversion within the markets.
On this context, bets are rising in prediction markets on a doable fall in the direction of $40,000. In the meantime, analysts like Willy Woo keep that The underside of this bearish development may happen within the fourth quarter of 2026and attain round $45,000.
Woo warns, nevertheless, that if the worldwide market has a powerful correction, bitcoin may go to decrease ranges comparable to $30,000 and even $16,000, an space that was the bearish backside of the crypto winter of 2022.
Even so, long-term bullish expectations stay, pushed by the shortage of the asset and the curiosity of institutional buyers. Bitcoin has a scheduled issuance that’s lower each 4 years via halving, which facilitates its rise within the face of demand. Due to this fact, it’s seen by many as digital gold.
