As of March 2, 2026, bitcoin (BTC) is buying and selling round $69,200, very near the $70,000 threshold. At that worth, the asset is 45% under its all-time excessive (ATH) of $126,000, reached on October 6, 2025.
This setback revived doubts available in the market about whether or not bitcoin has already discovered a backside or whether or not there may be nonetheless room for additional decline.
On this context, Yonsei Dent, specialist at CryptoQuant, a agency devoted to on-chain knowledge evaluation, revealed a comparative research primarily based on earlier BTC cyclesby which it initiatives a doable backside vary for the present bear market.
Its evaluation is predicated on each historic decline percentages and on-chain metrics. All through its historical past, BTC has gone via 4 main full market cycles, characterised by bullish phases adopted by deep corrections.
Every cycle is made up of an enlargement part, by which the value reaches a brand new all-time excessive, adopted by a contraction part or bear market.
Within the first cycle (2011), the asset fell 93% from its ATH. Within the 2013-2016 cycle, the decline was 86%. In 2017-2018, the drop reached 84%. Within the 2021-2022 cycle, the decline was 77%, from $69,000 to $15,500.
In accordance with Yonsei Dent, if the present cycle (which began in 2024) partially replicates that historic construction, the decline from the utmost of $126,000 might be in a spread of between 70% and 75%.. That may place the doable backside within the approximate space of $31,500 to $38,000.
With BTC presently buying and selling round $69,200, that situation would suggest an extra decline of roughly 45% to 55% from the present stage.
This share could be barely decrease than in earlier cycles, which might be interpreted as a moderation within the depth of the falls, because the market matures. Nevertheless, It’s clear that it represents a correction of nice magnitude.
The time reference: when might the bitcoin backside occur?
The evaluation additionally incorporates a temporal variable primarily based on cycles linked to the halving. That is the occasion scheduled within the Bitcoin protocol that happens roughly each 4 years, as defined in Cryptopedia, the tutorial part of CriptoNoticias.
In that occasion, the reward miners obtain for validating blocks is decreased by half. This mechanism decreases the issuance of recent BTC and has traditionally been related to enlargement and subsequent correction cycles of the market.
Yonsei Dent in contrast the time from earlier halvings to the formation of the bearish backside. By replicating the patterns of the post-halving cycles of 2012, 2016 and 2020, The analyst initiatives that the doable backside of the present cycle might be between June and December 2026with the very best historic focus between September and November 2026.
To bolster his speculation, the analyst used the on-chain indicator Provide in Revenue (provide in revenue).
Within the earlier graph, the blue line represents the evolution of the indicator Provide in Revenue whereas the pink arrow factors to the decrease zone of the indicator, traditionally related to durations of higher market stress. In these moments, a major a part of the overall BTC provide turns into at a loss.
This indicator measures the proportion of the overall BTC provide that’s in revenue, that’s, cash whose present worth is greater than the value at which they have been acquired. When that share drops sharply, it signifies that a good portion of the market is in losses, which traditionally has coincided with areas of capitulation and backside formation.
Capitulation is a time when many traders promote en masse attributable to concern of additional declines, taking losses to exit the market.
These phases are normally marked by quantity spikes and robust promoting stress, with abrupt drops within the BTC worth. In earlier cycles they’ve preceded worth stabilization and the start of a brand new stage of accumulation.
In 2022, for instance, the background part was prolonged by roughly six months, whereas the indicator remained in its decrease zone.
In accordance with Yonsei Dent, if the bearish construction of 2022 is superimposed on the present habits of the indicator, the projected vary once more coincides with a drop of 70% to 75% from the historic most of the present cycle.
A possible situation, not a certainty
The evaluation itself clarifies that earlier cycles don’t assure that historical past will repeat itself precisely. Macroeconomic circumstances, world liquidity and geopolitical components could alter the length and depth of each bear market.
Nevertheless, historic comparability means that if the present cycle respects previous constructions, BTC worth might nonetheless expertise extra bearish stress earlier than establishing a definitive backside.
For now, with BTC buying and selling under $70,000 and much from its October 2025 excessive, The market stays attentive as to if historic habits as soon as once more presents clues concerning the path of the cycle.
