Lighter (LIT) is a decentralized perpetual futures trade constructed on Ethereum Layer 2. After distributing 25% of the whole provide by means of airdrops, traders anticipate LIT’s market capitalization to proceed to rise.
Why do traders stay optimistic about Leiter’s potential and what dangers ought to they take into account now? Within the subsequent article, we’ll take into account these questions in additional element.
Mild valuation beats Pump.enjoyable and Jupiter
Beforehand, Reiter raised $68 million at a $1.5 billion valuation. Instantly after launch, Coinbase listed LIT on the LIGHTER-USD buying and selling pair. The value is presently fluctuating between $2.7 and $2.9, giving it a totally diluted valuation (FDV) of roughly $2.7 billion.
After the airdrop, the market noticed important exercise by whale traders. On-chain analytics account Lookonchain reported that a minimum of three whale wallets deposited 9.98 million USDC into Lighter to buy LIT.
The BeInCrypto report states that enormous patrons are absorbing the availability of LIT. This motion will assist keep shopping for strain and assist the worth. This means that some traders consider within the upside potential of LIT, particularly within the early worth discovery stage.
In keeping with FDV, the highest decentralized trade (DEX) altcoin. Supply: CoinGecko
Regardless of being newly launched, Lighter’s valuation is larger than Pump.enjoyable and Jupiter, in accordance with knowledge from CoinGecko. Lighter presently ranks fourth within the decentralized trade (DEX) coin class, behind Hyperliquid, Aster, and Uniswap.
Traders consider Reiter’s FDV might attain greater than $2.7 billion. They predict it might rise considerably.
Traders anticipate mild (LIT) valuations corresponding to Aster and HyperLiquid
There are a number of causes supporting this perception.
startingwriters clearly stand out by way of consideration. Dexu AI reported that Lighter (LIT) presently holds the very best mindshare amongst perpetual derivatives protocols.
At present, Lighter $LIT has the very best mindshare among the many perps protocols.
It has the very best progress charge of sensible followers after Jupiter and Hyperliquid.
Maxis has a powerful neighborhood of writers. third place after Hyperliquid and Aster.
High 10 Maxis embody @yh_0x,… pic.twitter.com/54X7KL5aqr
— Dexu AI (@_dexuai) December 30, 2025
After Jupiter and Hyperliquid, Lighter recorded a big enhance within the variety of “sensible followers”. Moreover, there’s a sturdy neighborhood of writers at Maxis. It ranks third behind Hyperliquid and Aster.
Quantity 2regardless of being not too long ago launched, Reiter achieved 24-hour buying and selling volumes corresponding to Aster. The quantity is shut behind Hyperliquid. Lighter’s 7-day and 30-day buying and selling volumes outperform each rivals.
“Very shut race. Hyperliquid. Light-weight. Aster. Just one firm can win…” stated investor Alex.
Perp volumes by protocol. Supply: Defilama
Consequently, traders consider Leiter might attain an FDV just like Aster, round $5.5 billion. This state of affairs means that the worth of LIT might double from its present stage of $2.7.
Some traders even anticipate LIT to overhaul HYPE. Hyperliquid’s FDV is roughly $25 billion. This means a virtually 10-fold enhance in LIT.
Nonetheless, these comparisons rely closely on hype-based sentiment. Some analysts strongly disagree.
What about dangers?
X consumer Henrik noticed that the author misplaced about 25% of his open curiosity over the previous three weeks. He additionally in contrast the P/E ratios of the 2 initiatives. This comparability reveals that LIT is buying and selling at a better valuation than HYPE regardless of weaker fundamentals.
“Given this, regardless of weaker fundamentals, LIT is presently costlier than HYPE on each secondary and absolutely diluted metrics. Moreover, whereas 100% of Hyperliquid’s proceeds are going towards share buybacks, LIT’s income distribution and token worth era stays unsure. Essentially, there isn’t a clear catalyst for LIT, and airdrop-related churn will proceed for a while,” Henrik stated.
Comparability of LIT and HYPE. Supply: Henrik
Moreover, the decline in returns following the Token Era Occasion (TGE) can be elevating issues. Analyst TylerD noticed that Lighter’s income fell from $1.5 million per day on November 21 to $150,000 per day in December. This represents a 10x discount.
Author’s Day by day Earnings. Supply: Defilama
Historic knowledge reveals that airdrop incentives usually enhance buying and selling quantity and briefly enhance income. However for long-term progress, Lighter must show a transparent benefit over its rivals. The mission should additionally stay resilient to broader market headwinds.
The put up “Lighter Valuation Surpasses Pump.enjoyable and Jupiter: Can LIT Overtake Hyperliquid?” appeared first on BeInCrypto.
