As bitcoin (BTC) continues beneath $70,000 (USD), on-chain analyst Willy Woo issued a warning on February 18, 2026. “I’ve dangerous information for the everlasting bulls. Bitcoin continues to strengthen its bearish development,” he wrote on his X account.
One of many indicators that helps its analysis is value fluctuation, one thing that permits us to detect doable development adjustments. For Woo, bitcoin entered a bear market in 2026 “when volatility skyrocketed quickly.”
Since then, as seen within the following graph, volatility continues to rise, “which implies that the bearish development is strengthening,” he highlighted. In the mean time, nonetheless, it has not reached the utmost ranges of volatility seen within the crypto winters of 2015, 2018 and 2022.
The height of volatility normally happens within the center or late part of the bear market, at which level the development begins to weaken. “We typically see a second or third smaller peak within the macro background; these peaks replicate capitulation,” Woo mentioned.
3 phases of the bitcoin bear market
The analyst burdened that volatility is just one of many views to guage the market. One other issue that he sees as secret is following liquidity flows, one thing that reinforces his bearish evaluation. In his opinion, from this angle, it’s helpful to border the BTC bear markets in three phases.
Part 1 corresponds to the start, when “bitcoin liquidity has already deteriorated (this occurred within the third quarter of 2025) and the value begins to fall.” Woo argues that, being a comparatively small asset in comparison with others corresponding to gold, bitcoin is “hypersensitive to liquidity.” Subsequently, he explains that tends to anticipate international macro bear markets“typically for months.”
In different phrases, when sensible cash (sensible cash) withdraw capital, bitcoin responds rapidly. That capital can also be leaving shares, however there the motion is just not instantly mirrored. On this part, the everlasting bulls will blindly say that it is a correction inside a broader bull market, however they won’t supply strong proof of capital influx, solely narrative.
Willy Woo, technical analyst.
Part 2, in accordance with Woo, happens when international shares additionally enter a downtrend. As it is a big sector valued at $100 trillion, it strikes slower than bitcoin, whose present capitalization is $1.3 trillion.
For Woo, that state of affairs is the center part of the BTC bear market. It’s characterised by a common decline in threat property whereas “there isn’t any longer any doubt” that there’s a bear market.
Part 3 represents “the sunshine on the finish of the tunnel.” In accordance with the analyst, there liquidity begins to get well and capital outflow reaches its peak and stabilizes, whereas traders regularly return.
“On this part there may be normally a remaining capitulation of the value, both earlier than or barely after the height exits,” he mentioned. In accordance with the analyst, bitcoin remains to be removed from this half.
Woo clarified that, “beneath this bear market framework, BTC is presently in part 1 and near part 2.” One thing that displays that is that the downward motion is going on in correlation with expertise shares, not like others that set new all-time highs this yr.
Evaluation in statement
Woo’s Foresight generated each favorable opinions and questions. Exhibiting skepticism about his bearish view, the maximalist generally known as Zynx requested him: Did not you expect that bitcoin would attain between $200,000 and $300,000 in 2021?
Woo responded: “Sure, 100%. What modified was the affect of derivatives markets; 2021 was the primary cycle that concerned vital paper buying and selling (editor’s observe: refers to bitcoin derivatives, ETFs, and so forth.). Implementing fashions that increase from on-chain to derivatives was key.”
In that sense, Woo acknowledged having been mistaken in such a projection, however defended his analytical method and observing it individually. “It was a mistake, however a worse mistake is to deliver it up as if it invalidated all evaluation. An clever particular person would search for flaws within the argument to invalidate a thesis.”
These statements happen days after the analyst indicated that The present weak point of the market additionally has to do with quantum computing. The event of such expertise makes it doable to decode non-public pockets keys sooner or later. That’s the reason initiatives are rising to mitigate that probability.
With this context, it foresees the intensification of a bear market within the medium time period. Nevertheless, he maintains his long-term bullish expectations for bitcoin, attributable to its shortage and the expectation that it’ll change into proof against quantum computing.
This angle additionally coincides with the historic sample that the market has had. As CriptoNoticias reported, the forex all the time marked the top of a bullish cycle the yr after every halving after which had a fall of round 80%.
At present, bitcoin is buying and selling 45% beneath its all-time excessive of $126,000 reached in October 2025, the yr after its most up-to-date halving. On this sense, relying on its historic conduct, the correction might proceed.
