Whereas bitcoin (BTC) stays buying and selling between 60,000 and 70,000 {dollars} (USD), round 48% lower than its all-time excessive marked on October 6, 2025, expectations of falls to decrease costs this yr develop.
“Everyone seems to be ready for $40,000 for bitcoin,” the dealer referred to as Rekt Fencer commented from his imaginative and prescient on February 24, 2026. In accordance with his evaluation, Bitcoin’s present drop is a repeat of the sample that occurred in Might 2022 through the earlier bearish cycle.
At the moment, the value remained in a interval of lateralization after an abrupt decline after which fell to decrease ranges. On this sense, the lateral part that bitcoin has proven within the final three weeks believes that it’s going to break downwards, as on that event. That is proven by the analyst by means of the next graph.
Nonetheless, Rekt Fencer recalled that, in 2022, “many bassists “They missed the underside making an attempt to purchase decrease.”. For him, there may be “a lesson” there for the present cycle, which isn’t to attempt to guess the underside to enter.
His remark comes as forecasts improve for what bitcoin’s backside shall be this yr. On the Polymarket prediction platform, the best quantity of bets (each for and towards) signifies that it’s going to drop from $45,000, whereas in Kalshi it is going to drop to $44,000.
Repetition of the historic cycle of bitcoin
In tune, Nick O’Neill, co-founder of the market leisure and training firm BoDoggos, remarked on February 22 that technical evaluation is falling into place along with his bearish thesis. In accordance with his imaginative and prescient, “$40,000 may arrive” earlier than the tip of March.
Among the many arguments he talked about that the worry and greed index fell to five, its lowest degree because the FTX chapter. “And all of the analysts I reviewed level to the identical worrying conclusion: this can be a repeat of the four-year cycle,” he added.
Such a cycle refers to the truth that bitcoin all the time reached the tip of an extended bull interval within the yr following every halving after which perceived a bear market. The newest version of this occasion, which halves the issuance of BTC each 4 years, was in 2024.
“The macro thesis has not modified the sample,” O’Neill emphasised. “We’ve not seen a complete capitulation but, so we may go decrease,” he added. The one query is, in his opinion, whether or not the 200-week transferring common, which is positioned at $58,000, will maintain out because it has on different events. Given the present bearish outlook, “frankly, I believe it is going to break him,” he mentioned.
Error when making an attempt to guess the background
An identical evaluation was beforehand raised by James Foord, economist and director of funding group The Pragmatic Investor. In a report on February 6, when bitcoin hit 60,000, its lowest in additional than a yr, he thought-about that it may hit decrease costs, in accordance with its historic sample.
Within the final bear markets that occurred in 2022 and 2019, the value of BTC fell 84% and 77% respectively, suggesting smaller and smaller declines. If this dynamic is repeated, the value may cease its fall after falling round 75% from its historic most. That may take it to $31,000.
Nevertheless, Foord thought-about it prudent to not try to determine the precise backside of the bear market. As a substitute, he proposed a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) technique, which includes making periodic purchases to common the acquisition value.
Below this method, it’s handy allocate capital within the present zone, in addition to within the $57,000 and $40,000ranges that functioned as help. The economist proposed dividing the funding capital into 20%, 30% and 50% to deploy it at every of these ranges or after technical reversal confirmations.
In any case, he warned that this methodology additionally includes dangers, particularly within the present atmosphere. “We’re coming into unprecedented geopolitical occasions,” he famous, anticipating that the market may face larger strain.
Nevertheless, he maintained that, in contrast to earlier cycles, “bitcoin has way more in its favor, with establishments and even governments additionally invested.” Subsequently, it’s bullish in the long run. His thesis is predicated on the inflow of institutional funding and the immutable shortage of bitcoin.
These views come whereas the autumn of bitcoin reveals correlation with the expertise sector within the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. This has largely been influenced by the tariffs applied by Donald Trump, regardless of the Court docket’s antagonistic ruling.
