What’s Elo’s resolution?
A brand new characteristic referred to as prediction market Elo applies an Elo/MMR type scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and aggressive sport matchmaking. We rank merchants based mostly on how constantly they will predict the right end result, somewhat than how a lot cash they transfer.
Arkham described the system at launch: prediction market Helps you discover the efficiency ranking (Elo) of Arkham Intel. ”
Each appropriate prediction will increase a dealer’s Elo rating in comparison with the broader dealer pool. Longshot calls pinpoint extra edges, so predictions made at decrease odds carry extra weight than predictions made at increased odds. Wager measurement shouldn’t be thought-about in any respect. In different phrases, a dealer with a low bankroll however a excessive hit price could outperform the highest merchants. quantity whale Works much less constantly.
Who leads the Elo Board?
The (Rankings) tab of the Arkham leaderboard reveals that “GardenerCx” holds the highest Elo rating of 2389 on the time of launch. It is a short-term specialised account. cryptography Market up/down and commerce 5 minute worth path calls on Polymarket. With 2,512 resolved markets, this account has a 66.1% win price, a 47% return on funding (ROI), and a realized revenue of $51,400 on $110,700 in capital.
Arcam mentioned in an article on the time of the announcement that GardenerCx “revolves round buying and selling the highest and backside five-minute markets of cryptocurrencies with unimaginable precision” and had a 64.3% win price on 2,644 bets on the time of publication.
The second-place account “roberto73” focuses on the soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, with a 47.8% win price, $177,800 in revenue, and a pair of,254 Elo in 2,835 markets. The third-place account, Oliveira39, covers sports activities together with soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win price and $50,100 in earnings throughout 1,817 markets.
The distinction between revenue and loss and eroticism
The distinction between profit-based rankings and Elo rankings is without doubt one of the clearest alerts of this characteristic. Within the (Prime Merchants) tab filtered by 7-day efficiency, ‘blunttedge’ comes out on high with a 75% win price and $8.3 million revenue with 1,027 trades. “1two1two” follows with a win price of 83.3% and a revenue/lack of $5.6 million with 2,435 trades.
One of the crucial prolific bettors on the platform, ‘Swisstony’ ranks third on the P&L board with a 52.9% win price and up to date earnings of $3.4 million from 261,298 trades. On the Elo board, this account has a ranking of 1514, which places it within the high 7% of merchants, however nicely under the accuracy leaders. Arkam famous that regardless of his excessive sizing and P&L, “his trades are constantly much less worthwhile” in comparison with merchants who rating increased on pure forecast accuracy.
This separation signifies the intent of the system. PnL leaderboards are decided by place measurement and quantity. The Elo board surfaces merchants who constantly get the suitable outcomes, irrespective of how a lot cash they put in.
Background and entry
Arkham first launched the entire Prediction Markets evaluation suite in early Might 2026. That suite included P&L-based leaderboards, particular person dealer profiles with full place historical past and win price graphs, real-time commerce feeds filterable by class, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which incorporates over 3.5 billion handle labels and over 800,000 verified entities.
Elo performance builds instantly on that basis as an accuracy layer alongside current profit-based instruments.
What it means for merchants
Prediction market volumes on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are steadily rising by means of 2026. Till now, leaderboard visibility has been primarily directed in direction of the most important bettors and largest P&L names. The Elo system gives researchers and merchants with a technique to determine forecasters with documented expertise. It is a clearer sign for individuals who need to monitor or analyze constant edges somewhat than uncooked earnings.
