It’s nearly inconceivable to start out a dialog with the Venezuelan dealer Alberto Cárdenas and never ask him on the outset: how do you see bitcoin? And this was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market is at all times marked by acuity, one thing that has allowed him up to now to anticipate bearish or bullish actions.
Though he doesn’t have a crystal ball for clairvoyance and divination, the analyst believes that bitcoin has not but deserted its 4-year market cycles, that 2026 will likely be a bearish yr, that altseasons will now not be like earlier than and most significantly: he count on a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) for bitcoin as quickly as November.
The latter underneath just one situation: that the US Supreme Court docket rolls again all of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which might be a critical blow to North American financial coverage.
“There’s a chance that the court docket will rule towards the tariffs and block this entire situation. That would generate a short-term impact of weak spot within the greenback, as a result of the US must repay all the pieces it has charged for tariffs till now. It will be a scenario that may trigger bitcoin, gold and belongings which have a unfavorable correlation with the greenback to rise in value,” Cárdenas defined to CriptoNoticias.
What the specialist perceives is that the market is in a lateralization course of with a bearish bias as a consequence of deterioration in liquidity and a macro surroundings that’s not being favorable.
He believes that if macroeconomic situations change, corresponding to the problem of tariffs and the top of the US authorities shutdown, then a bullish rally would come for bitcoin.
It have to be remembered that bitcoin reached its historic most value on October 6 when it was quoted at $126,000 per unit, a reality reported by this publishing home. Nevertheless, presently the digital asset is struggling to not fall beneath $100,000.
Bitcoin completes its 4-year cycle and a bear market is coming
There are a number of opinions within the cryptocurrency ecosystem about if he conventional 4 yr bitcoin cycle ended or continues to be in power.
Those that now not take into account it see that institutional funding and new laws, primarily from the US, remodeled it and the “three bullish and one bearish years” marked by the halving is now not fulfilled. Cárdenas is on the other aspect:
The cycle has been fulfilled up to now very precisely and now, understanding that section of the cycle, we needs to be near a historic most. For me, a market ceiling is shut taking into consideration that variable that’s the cycle and having a yr 2026 that I see as bearish for BTC. We should put together for a tough 2026 for bitcoin, it will likely be corrective.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
What it does guarantee is that, when wanting on the world macroeconomic panorama, the present scenario is completely different from previous cycles. On this level he identified that the most vital variable is that there’s not an abundance of liquidity that was had in earlier cycles.
“Proper now we’ve world uncertainty. There is a vital situation with the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that got here into impact beginning in August. We have no idea how the financial system will react within the coming months,” he mentioned.
In relation to the altseasons, our interviewee affirms that these will now not be like earlier than. His view is that there’s a rotation within the cryptocurrency house not supported by liquidity.
“Now you might be seeing issues just like the rally in ZCash. That is an unbelievable, however asymmetrical, punctual rally in some currencies, whilst you observe weak spot in XRP, you might be seeing weak spot in different issues. What there may be is an inner rotation that often occurs in nearly all markets.”
Relating to the extended closure of the US authorities, Cárdenas commented that, though these conditions often don’t have an effect on the markets as a lot, on this event, as they prolong longer than they need to, there are concerns to take into consideration such because the opacity of official information.
Inventory Market and tokenization in Venezuela
Cárdenas has at all times thought-about Venezuela as a “laboratory” in relation to cryptocurrencies. It’s because, as our editorial this week factors out, lately the nation has taken a number of paths throughout the world of digital belongings: from laws, adoption after which prohibition of mining, creation of its personal token (the petro) to the present effervescence over the Tether stablecoin, USDT.
Past these realities, the dealer sees potential for the nation to start to get entangled with the tokenization of real-world belongings (RWA), which may open the doorways to an unprecedented market.
In actual fact, the Caracas Inventory Trade, as he commented, is already getting concerned within the academic side with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
«A course on tokenization was not too long ago given, however there may be nonetheless no affirmation about attainable tasks of this kind. “I discover it very attention-grabbing that the Caracas inventory alternate, for instance, is absolutely dedicated to noticeably understanding the problem of tokenization,” added the analyst.
Given this world development of digitization of actual property, monetary merchandise and even artistic endeavors, Cárdenas mentioned that it will be essential to rethink the enterprise as a result of it considers that this monetary enterprise house is altering.
I feel that the previous mannequin based mostly on transactional fee costs, like somebody might need in a brokerage home, is dying, in my view, it’s dying and companies have gotten extra environment friendly. The enterprise has to go to one thing else, most likely custody, safety, most likely consulting or one thing else, however that previous transactional enterprise I now not see enterprise there.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
When requested what areas he sees with potential to discover tokenization in Venezuela, he mentioned that actual property is an “extremely attention-grabbing house.”
“If that occurs, you’d give liquidity and fluidity to a market that’s by nature illiquid.” The opposite areas that he sees with prospects are: the agroindustrial sector, commodities, inventories, shares of firms listed on the inventory market.
«The vary is gigantic, however you at all times have to consider the constructive affect it could actually have on the nation. “If it’ll give it liquidity, dynamism and even ultimately be a bridge to draw overseas funding.”
