The worry and greed index of the bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency market, ready by the CryptoQuant explorer, fell to five factors on the finish of final week.
That is the worst investor sentiment in 4 years, since crypto winter 2022. Additionally it is one of many scariest states in market historical past, though it then rebounded barely over the weekend to succeed in 8 factors on the time of this publication, Monday, February 16, 2026.
Comparable ranges have been solely current throughout occasions of nice rigiditycorresponding to on the backside of the 2018 bear market, the decline earlier than the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 and the implications of the closure of the FTX cryptocurrency change in 2022.
On a scale of 0 to 100, ranges above 80 on this index mirror excessive greed within the bitcoin market. However, numbers under 20 point out excessive worry.
“That tells you that this isn’t a light-weight precaution. “It’s the psychology of capitulation,” highlights George Tung, the investor greatest identified on social networks as CryptosRus. “When it comes to habits, this corresponds to traditional loss aversion,” he notes, in a submit on February 15.
What does this sense encompass? «After sharp falls, traders prioritize security, delay re-entry and look forward to affirmation. Sentiment normally lags behind worth. Confidence is slowly rebuilt, even after the markets stabilize,” says the analyst.
On this situation, there are worry and greed indices that present excessive worry, however not at ranges as little as in CryptoQuant. The one compiled by CoinMarketCap is at degree 12 and that of Coinglass at 11, after each touching the rating of 5 on completely different dates in February.
Every of those indicators measures market sentiment primarily based on completely different information, corresponding to volatility, futures markets and messages on social networks. Though, in CryptoQuant, it’s not clarified what elements precisely it takes to make the calculation.
Excessive promoting strain regardless of the dearth of “catastrophes”
The bottom factors of the worry and greed index They normally coincide with occasions of huge gross sales and buying alternatives. These intervals precede robust long-term bitcoin appreciation.
Though “excessive worry doesn’t assure an instantaneous rebound,” it has traditionally marked “the preliminary section of a technique of bottoming«explains CryptosRus. This idea refers to a readjustment within the place and expectations of traders.
“When the gang focuses on avoiding additional ache reasonably than chasing upside potential, markets are sometimes nearer to exhaustion than growth. The sensation fades and that’s the place new cycles silently start,” he explains.
Anyway, excessive worry does not imply bitcoin cannot decline to decrease costs. Actually, the market has hit the underside of each crypto winter not essentially when it’s on this state, however typically later, at non-extreme worry ranges.
In different crypto winters, retail panic predominated as a result of catastrophic occasions, such because the FTX chapter or the Covid-19 pandemic. The present excessive worry, then again, doesn’t happen within the face of a panorama of such magnitude.
As a substitute, there’s a readjustment of traders’ positioning in numerous circumstances. Amongst them, macroeconomic uncertainty and the four-year historic sample that may affect market psychology stand out.
2026 could be bearish for bitcoin, in keeping with historical past
If it continues its traditional four-year sample, bitcoin may have a bearish 2026. The foreign money all the time reached the tip of an uptrend the 12 months after every halving. This may be seen under.
The newest halving, which halves the issuance of BTC each 4 years, was in 2024. The worth is now buying and selling round $68,000 (USD), 46% under its all-time excessive of $126,000 marked in October 2025.
Traditionally, the value fell round 80% in every crypto winter. Though, in each, it registered a slight minor correction. On this sense, BTC’s decline on this cycle won’t be overhowever be much less extreme than previously.
For James Foord, economist and director of the funding group The Pragmatic Investor, a 75% drop from its historic most is possible. That will place its worth at lower than $40,000, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Nonetheless, it’s essential to understand that previous occasions aren’t any assure that they are going to be repeated. Actually, completely different analysts argue that BTC may have a milder crypto winter, because of the presence of institutional funding that was not there earlier than.
