There have solely been thrice in Bitcoin’s historical past the place the month-to-month closing worth has been unfavorable 5 instances in a row, and every time the scenario was the identical.
One of many chart indicators that preceded the altcoin rally of 2021 has flashed once more for the primary time in almost 4 years.
Ecoinometrics says the actual threat to Bitcoin will not be Bitcoin itself, however what the Nasdaq does subsequent.
Bitcoin is buying and selling round $68,240, down 45% from its all-time excessive of $126,000 in October 2025. The crypto concern and greed index is at 14. We’re about to succeed in a unfavorable month-to-month shut for the fifth time in a row, a streak that has solely occurred thrice in Bitcoin’s total historical past.
The query on everybody’s thoughts, is that this the underside of the bear market or a pause earlier than the following leg down? There are at the moment 5 indicators converging that might decide the reply.
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1. There was at all times a unfavorable 5 months earlier than a 100% restoration.
Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis identified that the one time Bitcoin had 5 consecutive unfavorable month-to-month closing costs was thrice in 2011 and twice throughout the 2018 bear market. In every case, Bitcoin recovered 100% over the following 5 months.
2. The NASDAQ 200-day transferring common is an actual journey wire.
Institutional analysis agency Ecoinometrics warned that whereas Bitcoin is already beneath its 200-day transferring common, the Nasdaq 100’s 200-day transferring common remains to be rising. When inventory costs fall, Bitcoin follows go well with.
“There has by no means been an instance in historical past the place a expertise went right into a full-blown bear section whereas Bitcoin remained quietly steady.” mentioned the corporate.
The setup is unstable. Whereas shares are nonetheless holding up, Bitcoin is falling. If the Nasdaq rolls over, the crash will flip right into a decline.
3. Bitcoin volatility was decrease than NVIDIA volatility
Bitcoin’s 12-month realized volatility has been decrease than Nvidia’s since late 2022, in response to knowledge from Econometrics. Now, ETF flows have changed the retail-driven rally as the middle of development formation. This makes Bitcoin structurally extra sturdy, but additionally extra delicate to capital drawdowns than in earlier cycles.
4. Altcoin MACD crossover not seen since Might 2020
Davis highlighted that the Different/BTC chart recorded a sustained bullish MACD crossover for the primary time because the altcoin outflow started in April 2022. A brief-lived crossover in March 2024 failed. This has at the moment been held for two months.
The final time such a crossover occurred was in Might 2020, simply earlier than altcoins’ huge rally heading into 2021.
5. CLARITY Act approaches March 1st deadline
The Crypto CLARITY Act applies roughly 85-90% of the time to prediction markets. The White Home has set a March 1 deadline to resolve stablecoin yield disputes between banks and crypto corporations.
Davis known as this a possible “set off” for the market.
The Fed hasn’t reversed course. Shares aren’t damaged. Altcoin indicators are flashing. And regulatory triggers are weeks away. 5 indicators, 1 choice level. This problem can be resolved within the coming weeks.
